INTEREST RATE EXPLORATION AS A STOCK RETURN PREDICTOR: INDUSTRY TYPE AND MARKET CAP APPROACH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22225/kr.16.2.2025.307-320Keywords:
Stock Return, Interest Rate, Industry, CapitalizationAbstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of interest rates on stock returns in the banking and real estate industries. This research using a quantitative approach with associative methods to explore relationships between variables. The data used are secondary data, including interest rates, stock returns, industry type, and market capitalization, with the research population consisting of banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and Bank Indonesia during the period from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2022. The sample was selected using a purposive sampling method, resulting in 16,380 observations of monthly data, with 126 respondents used in the analysis. Hypothesis testing was conducted using multiple linear regression, which revealed that interest rates have a significant negative effect on stock returns, particularly in the banking industry compared to the real estate industry. The greater sensitivity in the banking industry is attributed to differences in business characteristics and financial structures between the two industries. The novelty of this study compared to previous research lies in the object studied, the indicators used for the interest rate variable, and the examination of stock return variables moderated by industry type and market capitalization.
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Eko, M., Umaryadi, W., & Saragih, D. A. (2021). Interest Rate , Inflation and Jakarta Composite Index on Digital Media Based Companies Stock Return in Indonesia Interest Rate , Inflation and Jakarta Composite Index on Digital Media Based Companies Stock Return in Indonesia. Journal of Physics: Conference Series. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1807/1/012025
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Ghosh, R., Latha, K., & Gupta, S. (2018). Interest Rate Sensitivity of Non-banking Financial Sector in India. Vikalpa, 43(3), 152–170. https://doi.org/10.1177/0256090918792803
González, M. O., Jareño, F., & Skinner, F. S. (2016). Interest and inflation risk: Investor Behavior. Frontiers in Psychology, 7(MAR). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00390
Handayani, R., Suhendro, S., & Masitoh, E. (2022). Pengaruh profitabilitas, debt to equity ratio, price to eraning ratio dan kapitalisasi pasar terhadap return saham. INOVASI: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan, dan Manajemen, 18(1), 127–138.
Hastuti, R., Irawan, I., & Hukom, A. (2023). Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar, Suku Bunga dan Produk Domestik Bruto Terhadap Return Saham Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur. Studi Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Publik, 2(1), 21–36.
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2025-01-15
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Junaidi, J., Dharmawan, A. S. ., Abdulrahim, . M. O. ., & syah, sultan. (2025). INTEREST RATE EXPLORATION AS A STOCK RETURN PREDICTOR: INDUSTRY TYPE AND MARKET CAP APPROACH. KRISNA: Kumpulan Riset Akuntansi, 16(2), 307–320. https://doi.org/10.22225/kr.16.2.2025.307-320
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